New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge celebrates after hitting a home run against the San Diego Padres … [+]
Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
PECOTA is not quite the rite of the dead of winter as the moment when 30 teams see their pitchers and catchers report for spring training with their position players not far behind in gearing up for at least a six-month season and seven if a team fares well enough to qualify for a 12-team playoff field.
Still the projections made by Baseball Prospectus can serve as a reminder about baseball being close to picking up again, along with the presence of a preview magazine.
And for those seeking to read any kind of early preseason predictions, the predictive system named after former infielder Bill Pecota released some of their findings, including how it projects the New York Yankees and Mets to fare.
The acronym stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, which according to Baseball Prospectus projects player and team performance and those forecasts were released Monday a little over a week before spring training begins.
The Yankees will take the spring training fields with a lineup devoid of Juan Soto and hoping the sum of parts can replace Soto’s spectacular numbers in his lone season in the Bronx. PECOTA predicts the Yankees will figure it out well enough by finishing at 90-72 (89.7) to be exact.
Consider it like a margin of error in a poll since the online publication states it is an estimated range of games a team might win. Last year, the Yankees were predicted for 94 wins, and they reached exactly that number, though it is unlikely the prediction forecasted a closer with 11 blown saves in Clay Holmes.
The Yankees are projected to go neck and neck with the Orioles, who were forecasted for 89 wins after 91 wins in 2024 and 101 in 2023. It is hardly surprising those teams were picked for the top spots in the AL East after they combined to hold first place for 179 days.
PECOTA cannot necessarily project injuries. In 2023, the Yankees were viewed like the 99-win team in 2022, who made it through that season mostly healthy until late injuries to DJ LeMahieu, Andrew Benintendi and Matt Carpenter made their lineup less potent as evidenced by the showing in the ALCS sweep to the Houston Astros.
Those projections were made without knowing a broken toe would cost Aaron Judge nearly two months or that Anthony Rizzo would wind up with a concussion that resulted in a massive slump before getting shut down for the final two months. It also did not project Carlos Rodon would miss the first three months and struggle once he started taking the mound.
As for the Mets, they are projected for a similar record as their crosstown counterparts after adding Soto on a massive 15-year, $765 million deal. Unlike the Yankees the Mets are projected to play in the wild-card round for the third time as their 89 wins are projected to be three behind the Atlanta Braves, who overtook them on the last weekend of the 2022 season.
New York Mets’ Juan Soto speaks during a news conference, Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024, in New York. (AP … [+]
Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
It is not unreasonable to project the Mets for second. There is a case to be made that the top three teams of the NL East are stronger than the AL East and it is reflected in the fact that Atlanta, the Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are forecasted for at least 88 wins, making the division the only group with three teams projected to win that much.
All three have cases for their claims on division supremacy and cases against. For the Mets, it might be because they are uncertain whether Pete Alonso is returning, and it seems like the desire to retain him is lukewarm based on recent comments by David Stearns and billionaire owner Steve Cohen. It could because of a starting rotation that does not necessarily possess a dominant ace like Spencer Strider with Atlanta or Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler with Philadelphia.
The system is kind to the New York teams, backing up the belief the Yankees have publicly stated after adding Cody Bellinger, Max Fried, Devin Williams and Paul Goldschmidt.
Either way, barring anything drastically unexpected happening this will be nothing like 2023 when the Yankees were derailed by Judge crashing into the fence at Dodger Stadium and wound up with 82 wins and when the Mets wound up with 75 wins, selling off Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and fielding a lineup of a few journeyman players by the end of one of the more disappointing seasons in their history.
And while nobody knows what events might occur, a winter prediction is a fun diversion in anticipation of a season where the Mets and Yankees will convene six times with the hopes of meeting again in a repeat of the 2000 World Series.